Everything Sports & Gambling

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Del Mar 2011 Running Profiles

30 seconds after the completion of the very first race of the 2011 Del Mar a man comes up to me and stated, "Well at least this year the track is not favoring early speed and playing fair."
This comment was ridculous for two reasons:
First how can you tell anything from just one race yet alone the first and only race so far of the season? You can't.
Second, last year's track was not early speed favoring other than the Thurday, Friday and Saturday and to lesser extent Sunday before Labor Day. On those days the Del Mar 2010 track was early speed favoring and was not on other days of the 2010 meet.
So the gentlemen was wrong on several fronts. Not surprising since the track is full of misinformation.

So this brings me to this, the 2011 season. Below is the list of Running Profiles for 2011 Del Mar the first week by distance, finish position and point of call.

WK #1 7/20 -7/24

ALL POLY SPRINTS 28 RACES

FINISH LENGTHS BEHIND AT POINT OF CALL

3/16:1/4 3/8:1/2 S

1 3.33 2.57 .91

2 2.62 2.41 2.23

3 2.79 2.60 2.12

4 3.10 3.91 4.01

5 F 1 RACE

FINISH LENGTHS BEHIND AT POINT OF CALL

3/16 3/8 S

1 6.5 7 5

2 3 2.5 1

3 0 0 0

4 3 3.5 3

5.5 F 8 RACES

FINISH LENGTHS BEHIND AT POINT OF CALL

1/4 3/8 S

1 2.31 1.81 .52

2 2.47 2.5 2.31

3 3.72 4.09 3.47

4 3.12 3.46 5.18

6 F 13 RACES

FINISH LENGTHS BEHIND AT POINT OF CALL

1/4 1/2 S

1 3.38 2.67 .98

2 2.17 2.10 1.48

3 2.50 2.52 2.46

4 3.75 4.96 4.44

6.5 F 4 RACES

FINISH LENGTHS BEHIND AT POINT OF CALL

1/4 1/2 S

1 3.06 1.55 .25

2 4.19 2.56 1.92

3 3.44 1.68 2.38

4 3.55 3.81 2.12

7 F 2 RACES

FINISH LENGTHS BEHIND AT POINT OF CALL

1/4 1/2 S

1 5.75 4.75 1.25

2 4.00 3.75 1.00

3 1.25 .35 .10

4 .75 1.25 .75

WK #1 7/20 -7/24

ALL POLY ROUTES 4 RACES

FINISH LENGTHS BEHIND AT POINT OF CALL

1/2 3/4 S

1 3.00 2.44 1.62

2 2.62 2.12 1.62

3 3.88 3.62 4.12

4 4.62 3.50 3.88

8 F 4 RACES

FINISH LENGTHS BEHIND AT POINT OF CALL

1/2 3/4 S

1 3.00 2.44 1.62

2 2.62 2.12 1.62

3 3.88 3.62 4.12

4 4.62 3.50 3.88

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Kentucky Derby Winners Times at Various Pole Positions 2001 - 2010

KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS

AVERAGE SPLIT TIMES AND AVERAGE FINAL TIMES 2001 – 2011

POLE POSITION

Yr/TrkCnd ¼ ½ ¾ 1 F W

2001 F 24.54 47.39 110.51 135.39 159.97 Monarchos

2002 F 23.25 47.04 111.74 136.70 201.13 War Emblem

2003 F 23.14 46.57 110.75 135.84 201.19 Funny Cide

2004 S 23.28 47.17 112.06 137.37 204.06 Smarty Jones

2005 F 24.15 47.79 112.11 136.92 202.75 Giacomo

2006 F 23.17 46.77 111.41 137.02 201.36 Barbaro

2007 F 25.9 49.56 113.19 137.64 202.17 Street Sense

2008 F 23.56 47.48 111.77 136.52 201.82 Big Brown

2009 SS 26.64 49.93 114.56 138.66 202.66 Mine That Bird

2010 SS 23.58 47.54 111.68 137.74 204.45 Super Saver

AVG ALL 24.12 47.72 111.98 136.98 202.16

F 23.96 47.51 111.64 136.58 201.48

OFF 24.5 48.21 112.77 137.92 203.72

AVG ¼ SPLIT TIMES

ALL 24.12 23.16 24.26 25 25.18

F 23.96 23.55 24.13 24.94 24.90

OFF 24.5 23.71 24.56 25.15 25.80

The times were calculated using the scale that 1 length is equal to .17 of a second. (The generally accepted standard is between .17 and .20. For graded races I prefer .17 and the Kentucky Derby is a Grade 1 race.) Hence 1 second is equal to 5.88 lenghts.

The track conditions are the standard F = fast; S = sloppy & SS = sloppy sealed.

ALL means average for all races. F mean average for all fast races. Off means average for all non-fast track condition races.

REMEMBER THE WEATHER REPORT FOR MAY 7, 2011 PREDICTS A 50% FOR SHOWERS.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

The New England Patriots - The Greatest Team of the Last Decade or Greatest Cheating Team of the Last Decade?

In the first week of the 2007 football season, the New England Patriots were accused of videotaping the defensive signals of their opposing teams in violation of league rules, i.e. cheating, in the infamous “Spygate.” It is assumed, and perhaps correctly so, that the New England Patriots stopped using the videotapes during the rest of that season. However, we will never actually know.

In addition, it is assumed that the New England Patriots turned over all videotapes that they had in their possession as part of this scandal. Again we will never know nor will we ever know if they made copies before turning the videotapes over to the league officials.

However, what we can do at this time is look at what the New England Patriots record was in the four seasons preceding (we would exclude the 2007 season as the Patriots were caught in the first game of that season) their getting caught and compare that to their records in the four seasons since getting caught in an attempt to determine (if possible) if there was any statistical impact from the New England Patriots having videotapes and the defensive signals of the opposing teams. (All information on the New England Patriots season records were obtained from Wikipedia.)

The New England Patriots 2003 – 2006 season records were as follows:

2003 Season

14‑2 regular season

3‑0 playoffs (won super bowl)

2004 Season

14‑2 regular season

3‑0 playoffs (won super bowl)

2005 Season

10‑6 regular season

1‑1 playoffs

2006 Season

12‑4 regular season

2‑1 playoffs

In the four years preceding the New England Patriots being caught in the “Spygate” the average team record was:

Regular Season:

12.5–3.5

Post Season:

2.25‑.5

In the four years subsequent to the “Spygate”, the 2007 – 2010 seasons, the Patriots record has been:

2007 Season

16‑0 regular season

2‑1 playoffs (lost super bowl)

2008 Season

11‑6 regular season

0‑0 did not make playoffs

2009 Season

10‑6 regular season

0‑1 playoffs

2010 Season

10‑6 regular season

0-1 playoffs

In the four years subsequent to the New England Patriots being caught in the “Spygate” the average team record was:

Regular Season:

11.75–4.25

Post Season:

.5‑.75

Now I did not prepare information to determine if these changes were statistically significant, however there appears to be a one game addition to the regular season win column and a corresponding one less game loss in the regular season average prior to the 2007 season. In a very short season as in football a one game difference is a relatively large difference and can make a very big impact in determining if that team will make it into the playoffs.

As for their playoff record average, it is an abysmal .5 - .75 after “Spygate”. There is almost a two game win difference in the average playoff record versus what occurred after 2007 season and a half a game difference in the loss column. Moreover, in the 2008 season the New England Patriots did not even make it to the playoffs and since “Spygate” the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl.

As to the playoffs, it’s been my opinion that having tapes of the opposing team’s defensive signals would be most effective during the playoffs. When there is just a one game win or you’re out type of game, having those signals ahead of time and truly analyzing them should give the team a significant advantage. How often have we seen a playoff game decided by one big play? Would it not seem logical that having the opposing teams defensive signals ahead of time would make it more likely for that big game turning play to happen?

What can you take from this? It is obviously up to you. However what I have discerned is that while the New England Patriots and everybody may claim that their videotaping and cheating did not make any difference, it would appear that the numbers show otherwise. Whether or not these changes in numbers are due to personnel changes, coaching changes or just due to the videotapes, we will never know. However, the New England Patriots put themselves into this position by taking the videotapes and cheating.

So the questions for fans to answer are

Is Bill Belichick a great coach or a great cheater?

Are the New England Patriots truly a great team of the last decade or just a great cheating team of the last decade?

It will be up to the average fan to decide.

What do you think?